Seems like the best way to answer that one is to think in terms of a balanced market, where buyers and sellers are on equal footing. Ideally at the current rate of sales activity it would take 3-5 months for every available property to be sold. Buyers have more influence when the inventory is 5 months and higher, for sellers a number at 3 months or less tips the negotiating scales in their favor.

The past couple of years we’ve seen inventory levels in some Oakland neighborhoods like Rockridge between 1-2 months.

Looking at the last couple of months: in 94618 (Rockridge) 94611 (Montclair) 94610 (Crocker Highlands and Glenview)

Rockridge current listings 2-3 BR, 1-2 Ba = 10 sales & Pendings in July = 3 Aug=7

If sales continue at the same rate as in Aug, Inventory is at 1.3

July’s pace shows 3 months

The California Association of Realtors said sales of
existing homes in the state slumped 22.7 percent in July compared with
July 2006.

CAR said sales of existing homes in the state slumped 22.7 percent in July compared with
July 2006.

In Oakland neighborhoods in zip codes 94602, 94610, 94611, 94618, which includes Glenview, Oakmore, Montclair, Rockridge and  Piedmont Ave saw an increase in sales of single family homes in July 2007 compared to July 2006.

July 06, there were 81 sales

July 07, there were 93 sales

The condominum market shows 22 sales in July 06, compared to 21 in July 07

Home values in desirable neighborhoods in Oakland seem to be holding, but that’s not the case for Condos or homes in the < $600K range  in Oakland. The condo market seemed to appreciate beyond hyper-inflate over the last several years,

Condo owners who purchased in ‘05 or ‘06 were in competition with lots of other buyers many of whom are folks mortgage lenders now realize shouldn’t have approved.

Their mortgage payments have jumped and many can’t afford the monthly cost and want to sell now.  Some of the owners that purchased in ‘05 & ‘06 trying to sell may see the current value of their home decline as much as 12%. ….there’s just too many of them on the market.

Interesting is the lack of local Real Estate stats differentiating condos and single family homes.